One Day to the Draft

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And with the ninth pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, the Chicago Cubs select…a pitcher … JAY 2015

Wait…What? That’s it? Is that the best expert advice I can do? Well, I am not really sure of it being a pitcher either. This is probably the most unsettled draft in the Theo era. It strengths lie in shortstops, center fielders, and high school arms. Theo usually goes bat, but can he get a HIGH value bat at the position? That is the big question.

I don’t think the Cubs’ draft strategy will change much from previous years either.

They are going to take some risks, get some athletes, get some grinders, hitters that control the zone, power hitters, pitches with some projections, pitchers with some injury in the past, guys that play more than one position, waves of pitching, arms with little mileage, and players that played well in the Cape Cod League and USA Baseball.

Those are the types of players they like and select.

The only grumblings I can substantiate and confirm are these:

  1. It will likely be an under slot pick. Pick nine is not that much different from picks in the 20s and 30s.
  2. However, if someone falls, the Cubs could snap them like say Tyler Jay of Illinois or Dillon Tate of UC Santa Barbara – both flexible pitchers who have started and relieved.
  3. The Cubs will do an under slot to save money to spend later on day two picks in rounds 5-10.

If I had to pick one player from each type of category, here is who I would take:
College arm: Jay – two pitches rated plus plus with Dillon Tate as a backup
Prep Arm: I’d go with Peter Lambert – great makeup and some room to fill out – Dakota Chalmers might be plan B
Prep Bat – Kyle Tucker has the best prep bat if he falls, but I don’t think the sweet swinging lefty does. He should be gone at #5. IF he is gone, Garrett Whitley or Trenton Clark become plan B with Whitley being the more athletic of the two and Clark the better hitter now.
College bat: Benintendi is next, but he really has had only 1 solid year of production. Is that enough to pick him? I’d have to go with Ian Happ instead. However, his bat only profiles at 2B.  Don’t know if the Cubs want to do that. So, that leaves me with Donnie Dewees, an OF from the University of North Florida (Div. II) who has a short powerful line drive stroke to go with his good speed.


How this week will work
Monday – Rounds 1 and 2 starting at 6 central – on MLB Network and MLB.com
Tuesday – Rounds 3-10 starting at 11 a.m. central – on MLB Network and MLB.com
Wednesday – Rounds 11-40 starting at 11 a.m. – It is basically a conference call with each team getting just a few seconds to make each pick. They whip through 30 rounds in 5-6 hours. It is pretty intense. You can hear it on MLB.com, but there is nothing to see.

Here is my coverage schedule for The Cub Junction and on Cubs Insider. I will be on Twitter all the time: @thehistoryrat

Monday night
Live blog and Analysis here at The Cub Junction. At Cubs Insider, I will provide a draft card and analysis for each of the first two picks.

Tuesday Afternoon
Live blog and Analysis here at The Cub Junction. At Cubs Insider, I will provide a draft card and analysis for picks 3-10.

Wednesday – Thursday
Going to do some work around my parent’s house. I will tweet when I can. No coverage. I will also go to a game over in Burlington, Iowa as South Bend takes on the Angels low A Affiliate.

Friday and Saturday
Draft recap for rounds 11-30 along with cards and analysis here and at Cubs Insider

June 17 – Eugene Emeralds Team Preview
The Cubs short season A team begins play the next day. Many of the college position players selected in the draft will start their career here.

June 24 – Arizona Cubs Team Preview
The Cubs rookie league team begins play the next day. Many of the college pitchers and high school players selected in the draft will start their career here.

Signing the players – Deadline is July 17
The Cubs have $7,236,100 to spend on their first ten draft picks with their first pick slotted at $3,351,000. And the values continue as such
2nd round – $1,292,100
3rd round – $731,000
4th round – $503, 100
And so down to the 10th at $152,000.
Any pick after the 10th round cannot exceed 100,000 or it counts against the pool. Those numbers are not written in stone. The Cubs can go over with penalties. The Cubs can go over the pool by up to 5% and pay a 75% tax on the overage. If the Cubs go over 5%, they would have to pay a 75% tax and lose their first round pick in 2016. There are more penalties if they blow by those percentages. So, the Cubs pool is closer to $7,597,905 versus $7,236,100.

Three Key Links

1. Baseball America’s Top 500 – 1200+ players will be selected. About half are profiled here

2. John Sickels and his staff profile 400 players

3. MLB.com’s Top 200

I can’t wait for it all to begin!!!

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