By Todd Johnson
One of the feel-good stories from 2017 was the continued excellence of David Bote. His ascension to possible utilityman of the future actually began in 2016. He started that year as an organizational player and bounced around the system for a couple of months before settling in Myrtle Beach. When Ian Happ was promoted to Tennessee, it opened up a spot for Bote who has never looked back.
I first remember seeing Bote with the Kane County Cougars back in 2014 in Clinton, Iowa. At the time, I thought he was a good glove man and utility middle infielder but the bat was going to need some work. In 2016, Bote began adjusting his swing to create more lift on the ball. He wasn’t trying to hit home runs, he was just trying to hit more line drives. The result looks like it could be a major league career as he has been one of the Cubs hottest hitting prospects the past year and a half.
After destroying the Carolina League in the second half of 2016 (.351/.425/5 HRs, 38 RBI), Bote moved up to Tennessee in 2017 and had some interesting splits hitting between the .250s and .290s every month. For the year, it came out to a .272 average with an excellent .353 OBP to go along with 14 home runs and an .892 slugging percentage. Bote was then assigned to the Arizona Fall League where he hit three home runs in the first week of action. He would go on to hit .333 for the six weeks season and, as a result, earned a spot on the Cubs’ 40 man roster.
Heading up to AAA Iowa, Bote’s future looks to be that of a utility player. He can play any position in the infield and he also began to play the outfield a little bit (25 games in Tennessee, once in Arizona). While he is a good defender, he is only going to go as far as his bat will take him.
The Pacific Coast League is known as a hitters’ league. I’m not expecting David to go out and crank 25 home runs this year. Instead, I do expect him to hit for average, use the whole field, and be a selective hitter. In other words, hit the Cubs way.
While his ability to hit for average the past two summers is significant, his hitting profile would be even more glorious if his power profile produces even more in 2018. I’m not saying he should go up to the plate and try and crank a home run every at bat, but he should be able to square up the ball and drive the ball into the gaps in AAA, something he did quite often in Tennessee. Bote’s bat and power could be the difference to put him over the top. With a total of 18 HRs for the 2017 season between two teams, Bote might have the inside track to Chicago right now as a utility man.
Power seems to be the most potent piece of his profile to put in his minor league synopsis as he gets closer and closer to Chicago. It is what will set him apart.
Here are some other posts from this series:
By Todd Johnson
A year ago, I thought second base might have been the deepest position in the system. The rankings had Ian Happ followed by Chesny Young, Carlos Sepulveda, Trent Giambrone, Yeiler Peguero, and Jonathan Perlaza. Things did not work out well for anybody on that list except for Happ. Part of that disappointment was based on performance and part of that was because of Injury.
Sepulveda was injured early but did finish the year in the Arizona Rookie League. Chesny Young was up and down all year (more down than up). It took Trent Giambrone some time to adjust to high A after skipping South Bend and he took off in June and July before settling back to Earth in August.
Here are this year’s compilation of second baseman.
1. Carlos Sepulveda – He played in 28 games for Myrtle Beach at the beginning of the year before an injury robbed him of most of his season. He came back at the end of August and played nine games, plus the playoffs, for Mesa. After watching him hit .310 at South Bend in 2016, I was really looking forward to seeing what he could do and how much he could improve at Myrtle Beach. That didn’t happen, but he is still ahead of everybody else at the position when it comes to a hit tool. For 2018, I am not sure where he will begin the year but he should end it AA Tennessee.
2. David Bote – He begin to turn his career around in the middle of 2016 when Ian Happ left Myrtle Beach for Tennessee. Since then he has been a holy terror at the plate showing a mixture of power and the ability to hit for average. He can also play almost every position in the field, but most likely he will play second or third and some outfield in the future.
3 (tie). Jared Young – The 2017 draft pick got off to a rough start in Eugene. He hit .131 in 16 games in July. In spite of that average, I really liked his approach at the plate. It did not pay off that month. In August, it did. He hit .323 for the month and helped lead Eugene into the playoffs. I really like his size at 6’2″ and his smooth left-handed stroke. He will be at South Bend to begin 2018.
3 (tie). Austin Upshaw – Another 2017 draft pick, Upshaw hit from the get-go in Arizona, he skipped Eugene, and then he landed in South Bend where he hit almost .300 for a two month span. He was also one of my favorite interviews of the year and I wonder what position he will have going forward – first or second base. What I really like most about him is that he seems cool under pressure as he hit .293 with runners in scoring position. In just 52 games, he drove in 29. He also bats left-handed and showed a solid approach with a .339 on base percentage. That should improve more in 2018.
5. Chesny Young – 2017 was a series of adjustments for the young utility player. He played all over the field for Iowa and had a roller coaster season. That may be a cause of concern for some, but when you start to dig deeper you see that the approach is there, just not the results. His monthly batting average splits went .224/.357/.220/.300/.188. When he was ahead in the count in 2017, he hit over .500. When he was behind, he hit under .200. Those are some alarming differences that he is going to have to correct next season.
6. The fact that I did not include Trent Giambrone near the top of the list is not a knock against him as I love to watch him play and hit. I think he could have a great year at AA. To do so, he needs to be more consistent at the plate. He had an up and down year at Myrtle Beach after skipping South Bend. I think he will adjust back in 2018. There’s a lot to like about his game, his leadership, his intensity, and his potential for power.
Ones to Watch – Delvin Zinn, Jhonny Bethencourt, and Christian Donahue
Zinn played a mixture of shortstop and second base last year for Mesa while Bethencourt played all over the infield for Eugene. Both have the potential for outstanding bats. However, I think their positions need to be a little bit more settled. Zinn should be at Eugene playing a mixture of second and shortstop while Bethencourt should be at South Bend. The problem is where Bethencourt is going to play as he is not very solid defensively. I think he fits best at second base versus third base and especially over short.
At the end of the season, the Cubs signed undrafted free agent second baseman Christian Donahue from Oregon State. He was dismissed from the team right before the College World Series. It should be interesting to see how he does and where he does it at. In addition to playing second base for the Beavers, he played some outfield. He is known for having a high motor and being an excellent base runner.
By Todd Johnson
Three weeks of next to nothing. The hot stove is very cold as nothing is happening anywhere. The only transactions the Cubs made were taking a couple of flyers on relievers Randy Rosario and Cory Mazzoni. I don’t think there’s going to be any difference this next week.
The Cubs shopping list is pretty short this off-season. They need two starters, maybe two relievers – preferably left-handed, a backup catcher, and maybe a fifth outfielder.
I think everything’s going to come down to Ohtani. He gets posted by his Japanese club next weekend and then it’s a matter of time until he signs. Once he makes his decision, then everything is going to start to fall in place. Then Darvish will sign, then Arietta. Those three will set the market.
With the Winter Meetings scheduled for the week of December 11, look for a lot to happen then.
Atlanta Braves Penalized
Commissioner Rob Manfred came down hard on the Braves and their former GM John Coppolella was banned for life and one scout for a year. They also set free 13 young international players including shortstop Kevin Maitan. The Cubs are eligible to go sign any of these players under this year’s bonus pool, or if they choose, next year’s bonus pool. Those players officially become free agents on December 5. I will have a full fledged post on this topic later this week.
Baseball America’s Ben Badler also reported the Cubs are in the lead to sign 15 -year-old SS Rafael Morel this summer during International Free Agency.
MLB and MiLB Rule 5 Lists
The Cubs finalized their 40 man roster earlier this week. They protected Adbert Alzolay, Oscar de la Cruz, and David Bote from the Rule 5 Draft by placing them on the 40 man roster. Below is the list for the major league portion of the draft and the other is for the minor-league portion of the draft. Both come from The Cub Reporter.
Rule 5 MLB Selection Only
Any of the following players selected will have to be placed on the 25 man MLB roster or returned to the Cubs. The odds are slim that any of the following players are taken on December 14. However, I could see Hanneman, Araujo, and Hancock as possibilities. Maybe Chesny Young or Bijan Rademacher have an outside chance.
C-1B Tyler Alamo, RHP Pedro Araujo, OF Luis Ayala OF Jeffrey Baez, 1B-OF Yasiel Balaguert, RHP Corey Black, OF Charcer Burks, RHP Trevor Clifton, RHP Elvis Diaz, INF Mike Freeman, RHP David Garner, LHP Yapson Gomez, RHP Justin Hancock, OF Jacob Hannemann, RHP Zach Hedges, INF Jesse Hodges, RHP Erick Leal, RHP Brad Markey, 1B-OF Joe Martarano, RHP Ryan McNeil, LHP Jordan Minch, RHP Erling Moreno, RHP James Norwood, LHP Jose Paulino, INF Carlos Penalver, C-1B Jhonny Pereda, RHP Williams Perez, OF-1B Chris Pieters, OF Bijan Rademacher, LHP Manuel Rondon, RHP Jose Rosario, LHP Carson Sands, RHP Pedro Silverio, RHP Jake Stinnett, RHP Daury Torrez, INF Jason Vosler, RHP Ryan Williams, and INF Chesny Young.
MiLB Rule 5 Only
The minor-league portion of the rule draft is a bit different. I could see anyone of these prospects being taken by another team. To be honest, the catchers are most likely to be selected. While the Cubs do have some depth there, you still hate to lose anyone.
INF Gioskar Amaya, RHP Luis Aquino, C-1B Cael Brockmeyer, INF Stephen Bruno, OF Roberto Caro, C Erick Castillo, INF Kevin Cornelius, RHP Yan de la Cruz, RHP Enrique de los Rios, INF Andrew Ely, RHP Luiz Escanio, RHP Miguel Estevez, OF Robert Garcia, RHP Mark Malave, C-1B Alberto Mineo, LHP Chris Nunn, INF Adonis Paula, C Tyler Pearson, INF Henry Pedra, RHP Stephen Perakslis, RHP James Pugliese, C Will Remillard, C Ali Solis, and LHP Tommy Thorpe.
40 man Roster Analysis
By Todd Johnson
40 Man Decisions
Monday should be a big newsday as every major league baseball team has to turn in their 40 man roster which will include prospects that will no longer be available for other teams to take in the Rule 5 Draft. it should be interesting to see which players the Cubs protect.
With six spots on the 40 man available, I have a pretty good inkling that the Cubs’ list will be pitching heavy with Adbert Alzolay, Oscar de la Cruz, Pedro Araujo, outfielder Charcer Burks, and infielder David Bote most likely to be added. I also think that Trevor Clifton and Jake Stinnett could make the 40 man cut as well. It would be a huge gamble to leave one of the two off. Then again, the team that selects a player has to put them on the 25 man roster. It is easier to hide a pitcher in the pen than a position player on the bench. Don’t be surprised if the Cubs only select pitchers to go on the 40 man.
Major League Baseball will supposedly be handing down their punishment to the Atlanta Braves tomorrow. I expect it will be harsh and result in several prospects being named free agents, including SS Kevin Maitan. It would be wise of Maitan to wait until July 2 to resign with a new team as most teams have already spent most of their 2017 IFA pool. The 6’2” 190 pound 17-year-old would look good in Eugene this summer!
Arizona Fall League Ends
It was an up and down 6 weeks for most of the Cubs’ prospects. David Bote came on like gangbusters hitting .333 with a .395 OBP to go with 4 HRs (most in the first week). Catcher Ian Rice was pretty steady hitting .311 with a .415 OBP in just 13 games. Outfielder Charcer Burks hit .236 while Jason Vosler hit .210 with a .323 OBP and 2 HRs.
Pitcher Alec Mills had his moments as a starter but then equally struggled at times. Adbert Alzolay was used frequently and was excelling before he gave up 6 runs in 0.2 innings. However, Jake Stinnett and Pedro Araujo shined all fall with ERAs under 2 and K rates of 14+/9 IP.
The Cubs brass probably learned what they wanted to know about each prospect this fall. Tomorrow, we shall see who they value most from this bunch when some will be protected and some will not.
While Baseball America did kick off the prospect list season this week, it will be about another month before Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs do theirs. In the meantime, John Sickles will probably have his prospect list released by the end of this week or early next week.
On Wednesday this week, the off-season prospect series debuts with a profile of outfielder DJ Wilson. The series is called “Leveling Up.” The emphasis of each article will be a 2017 review and a 2018 to do list. On Friday, the position breakdown series returns as I analyze each position by ranking the top Cub prospects at that position.
Mailbag Part 2 Coming Up
The first mailbag post this week was somewhat successful. I have enough questions left over for two more posts. The second one will be out tomorrow, the other on the 27th.
Baseball Card of the Week
By Todd Johnson
MLB Roster Moves
8 Cubs declared for free agency after the World Series this week. On Tuesday, the offseason is all set to begin. The Cubs will be active but Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta will drive the market. Once those two sign, then you will begin to see slots fill up around the league. I hope the Cubs can hang onto Wade Davis and Jake Arrieta, but the odds are slim.
After the declarations, the Cubs announced that they claimed left-handed reliever Randy Rosario off waivers from Minnesota. The newly converted reliever pitch mostly at AA in 2017 but did see an unforgettable 2.1 IP. This has all the markings of a flyer and a gamble. He throws in the mid-to-upper 90s with a 90 mph slider. That, my friends, is worth exploring.
MiLB Roster News
Catcher Alberto Mineo is back on board. However, there is still no word on Trey Martin, Matt Carasiti, or John Andreoli either signing or choosing free agency. The Cubs don’t necessarily have to sign Carasiti to retain his services if they automatically place him on the 40 man roster. It is doubtful, but there’s a small chance it could happen before Tuesday’s signing deadline. Other prospects, who are not free agents but who would but eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, have to be placed on the 40 man by November 20 to avoid the Rule 5 Draft.
Johnson Roster News
In the past year and a half, two of our old dogs passed after short illnesses. On Friday night, my wife and I drove up to Madison, Wisconsin to get a new member for our pack. Socrates is a 4-year-old Spaniel mix who seems to be fitting in nicely. He has some 80 grade deception on his left front paw. He’s a keeper! High floor on his cuteness!
Otani Fever Is Getting Cold
Earlier in the week, the Posting Fee agreement between MLB and NPB (Japanese Professional League) expired without a new agreement in place. As a result, that fact could definitely hamper the career aspirations of P/OF Shohei Otani. Until a new agreement is in place redone, Otani will not likely come to the states unless his home team in Nippon financially benefits in a big way.
Since Otani could only sign a MiLB deal because of his age, the fee would be minimal. As a result, he is staying put for the time being unlike he gets an exception in the new deal.
I could have sworn I wrote a post about possible breakout players for 2018. I went back and looked to see who I picked and I could not find it or anything resembling it. Yes, I had some storylines I wanted to follow, but no posts exist about breakouts or sleepers for 2018. So, this week, that is what I am going to write about.
In three different posts, I will breakdown some players I will think will break out next year and shoot up the Cubs system or prospect lists. This will be in three parts. I will do hitters first, then starting pitchers, and I will close it out with relievers.
Arizona Fall League
Pedro Araujo and Jake Stinnett are still going strong. David Bote, Charcer Burks, and Ian Rice have all come back to the pack a bit. Even though Adbert Alzolay had a horrible outing this week (3 HRs and 6 runs in 0.2 IP), he was still in the AFL All-Star Game last night as were Bote and Stinnett. There are only just 2 weeks left in the AFL season. It has been an eye-opening experience as Bote and Rice have done really well against some of the best prospects in all of baseball.
There are still about three weeks left before I start posting my two off-season series – the usual MiLB system position breakdown series starts around Thanksgiving as does this year’s prospect series called “Leveling Up.”
Rule 5 Draft and the 40 Man Roster Choices
Expansion and Realignment are not so easy.
The Weekly: MiLB Roster Moves, International Free Agent List, and the 40 Man and Rule V List is Coming
By Todd Johnson
MiLB Roster News
The Cubs claimed outfielder Jake Hannemann off waivers from Seattle who previously acquired Hannemann from the Cubs back in September. With the pending free agency of John Jay, and the possibility of the Cubs trading one of their young outfielders, Hanneman provides some depth along with current Iowa Cub Mark Zagunis.
The Cubs re-signed Minor League free agent James Pugliese on Friday. In the past week, fellow Cubs prospects Gioskar Amaya and Erick Castillo also re-upped. Trey Martin, John Andreoli, Chris Nunn, and Matt Carasiti still remain unsigned for next year.
The Cubs also released the names and ages of 21 more international free agents they signed. Arizona Phil, as usual, of The Cub Reporter had the full list. He spent most of the article talking about 20-year-old Cuban catcher Alexander Guerra who I found out is nicknamed “El Tanque!” The Cubs previously announced they had signed shortstops Luis Verdugo and Fabian Pertuz, pitcher Florencio Serrano, and OF Alexander Ovalles back in July.
40 Man and Rule V Deadline Approaching
By November 20, The Cubs have to turn in their 40 man roster prior to the Rule V Draft. When I looked at possible prospects back in the middle of the summer, a lot has changed in those four months. Certain locks are not so certain anymore. I think the Cubs might even gamble I’m leaving a few touted prospects off the list.
I think there are four prospects that definitely will get added. They are Oscar de la Cruz, Adbert Alzolay, David Bote, and Pedro Araujo. Reliever Matt Carasiti could be in the discussion as he has had success at AAA in the Rockies’ system and again at Iowa. Carasiti has yet to sign a contract for next year.
Pitchers Trevor Clifton and and Jake Stinnett are borderline candidates to be added to the 40 man roster along with infielders Chesny Young and Jason Vosler.
2017 was such a strange year for Trevor Clifton. He looked like a certain 40 man candidate at the end of May and again at the All-Star break where he was a Southern League All-Star. Things fell apart in the second half. For Stinnett, he did not see any action until late in the summer and that was in a relief role. I think a team could take a huge gamble and select him. The Cubs could/should end up protecting both.
Arizona Fall League
What I am enjoying most about performances by the Cubs’ prospects this fall is the job that relievers Jake Stinnett and Adbert Alzolay are doing. On Friday, they each pitched two innings and struck out three and neither allowed a run. As for Stinnett, he did not allow a hit as his ERA is now down to 2.45 in 7.1 IP. Alzolay is at 0.90 in 20 IP.
It has also been nice to see Adbert Alzolay get a lot of traction online as a possible pitcher for next summer. While his fastball and approach are close to major-league ready, he still needs some work on his curve and changeup. I think the earliest we could see Adbert in Chicago would be in July. That could be in relief or it could be as a starter. At AAA Iowa, he is definitely going to be a starter for now. It is best to take a wait and see attitude. He is sure to get some looks at doing both in the major league camp.
In exactly one week, free agency will begin and trades will start happening. It doesn’t take long after the World Series ends. I will have a three-part look this week at the “State of the Cubs for 2018.” I will look at position players first, then I take a peek at the starting pitching, and finally, I examine what is needed in the bullpen.
After Friday, I am all out of prewritten material. The “Leveling Up” and “Position Breakdown” Series begin the week of Thanksgiving.
Top MiLB Storylines for 2018: Part 1
By Todd Johnson
For most Cub fans, the off season has begun. Theo Epstein did his annual postseason analytical press conference and now it is just a matter of time before he begins reassembling the team for 2018. Yesterday’s letting go of Chris Bosio was a surprise and it won’t be long before the Cubs have a new pitching coach. Then, a week after the World Series is complete, MLB free agency will begin and a new market for players and pitchers will take shape.
There’s a large part of me that enjoys the off-season just as much as I do the regular season. I enjoy the evaluative aspects of free-agent signings and trades just as much as I do breaking down prospects and trends during the regular season.
Another thing I really enjoy about the off-season is it allows me to write more about a specific topic. And I can carry that out over several days or weeks. This off-season is no different. I will again examine the positional depth throughout the system and, additionally, what several prospects need to do at the next level in 2018. Those series will start around Turkey Day.
As for the World Series and who will win, I don’t really have an emotional stake in either team winning. I would prefer that Houston would win just because they have never won a World Series championship.
Arizona Fall League
David Bote and Ian Rice both continued to terrorize pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. While Bote’s exploits continue to lead the league in most every offensive category, Rice is not far behind hitting .375 with a .524 OBP and a 1.086 OPS after two weeks. Jason Vosler looks to have broken through as he had a walkoff triple on Friday night. Adbert Alzolay has been fantastic with a 0.17 WHIP and Pedro Araujo has lowered his ERA from 9.00 to 3.00 this past week. Alec Mills made his second start as he gave up 1 run in 4 IP with 1 K.
Baseball America Draft Grades
John Manuel of Baseball America gave out some superlatives to several 2017 Cubs draft picks this week. In the article (subscription required), Manuel gave several accolades to Austin Upshaw, Nelson Velazquez, Austin Filiere, and Alex Lange. I think some other prospects to watch from this draft class are starting pitchers Cory Abbott and Keegan Thompson, reliever Jake Steffens, 2B Jared Young and SS Luis Vazquez as well as top pick Brendon Little. I really like the quality depth of position players and pitching the Cubs selected and signed this summer. It comes across that the Cubs selected much more athletic players this year than. Outfielders Brandon Hughes and Chris Singleton are just two of those type of players.
The Seven Series
The lower parts of the system conclude the series this week. South Bend is up first, followed by Eugene, and Mesa should be in the hole for Friday. The State of the MLB System series will follow next week.
Yesterday, I began putting together an article for BP Wrigleyville about possible expansion and realignment. I feel as though I was been born to write this article about MLB expansion and realignment. As a teacher, I think I have practiced doodling and outlining this article in many a faculty meeting and teacher institute over the last 30 years. It will be out next Saturday.
Baseball Card of the Week
I only added a few cards this week and I think that might be the pace I work at this off-season. You can see all them right here.