By Todd Johnson
While the first half breakout list tends to be players from South Bend and Myrtle Beach, the second half list is usually players from Mesa, Eugene, and maybe South Bend or Beach. There were a few prospects who had good seasons that we did see coming like Miguel Amaya, Aramis Ademan, and Jose Albertos. There were several players who put together good stretches together during the second half. Altogether, it was difficult picking out the winners.
Breakout Hitter of the Second Half
This was a tough call. Austin Upshaw was a player that I really liked from South Bend who hit almost .290 each month after being drafted this summer. Austin Filiere of Eugene hit .287 in the fourth spot with over a .400 OBP hitting cleanup along with five home runs. Andruw Monasterio came close to the definition of a breakout hitter along with Luis Ayala of South Bend. Monasterio hit .290+ in August while Ayala got his average up to .366 in July and .293 for the second half.
But if I’m gonna pick just one guy, it has to be Nelson Velasquez of Mesa whom the Cubs drafted in the fifth round this year. In August, he hit almost .300 and clubbed 6 home runs for the Mesa Cubs in the Arizona Rookie League leading them to a second half division title. In the playoffs, he hit 2 more homers and drove in 9. The sad thing about Nelson is we don’t have as many eyes on him after the death of John Arguello. Still, Nelson progressed each month since signing his pro contract. He is just 18 years old and I am really looking forward to him playing next year at Eugene and/or South Bend.
Breakout Starting Pitcher of the Second Half
This one wasn’t really as tough as the hitter category. It basically came down to two players. Runner-up Jesus Tejada had an outstanding August for the Cubs’ Dominican Summer League 1 team. He threw a no-hitter and struck out 19 batters in consecutive games.
But for me, the biggest surprise was the performance of Duncan Robinson at Myrtle Beach. While Michael Rucker stole the show there in June, Robinson got off to a rough start in his July debut and then seemed to improve at every opportunity throughout the summer. I liked the fact that he kept improving by adding a cutter to his repertoire. Another thing I liked was that Robinson did not seem to tire as the season progressed. He had a 2.37 ERA in 10 second half starts while striking out 37 in 49.1 IP. I am really looking forward to him pitching next year at AA Tennessee.
Breakout Reliever of the Second Half
I think Dakota Mekkes stole the show in the first half. The second half winner is not gonna be that much of a surprise. South Bend reliever Jhon Romero is one who I did not see coming. He throws in the mid 90s with a wicked breaking ball. Another surprise was Tyler Peyton of South Bend who had a 1.29 ERA just in August. One reliever I did see coming was Pedro Araujo for Myrtle Beach. With an ERA under 2, he basically owned the closer role and the Carolina League in the second half.
But when it comes right down to who was the biggest surprise or break out, it’s Dillon Maples. He progressed through four levels of the system at the age of 25. He has always had wicked stuff from the time he was drafted in 2011 but had injuries and confidence issues along the way. This year, the worm turned for him. With a wicked slider/curve and a fastball that approached 100 miles an hour, he was almost impossible to hit at every level. On September 1, he was called up to Chicago. In his first appearance, he walked one and struck out one.
When it comes to next year, I am not quite sure what to expect when it comes to possible breakout prospects. I am thinking Jonathan Sierra, but he most likely won’t begin play until the second half at Eugene. The same is true for pitcher Jesus Tejada.
More than likely, the first half breakouts for 2018 will come from either South Bend or Myrtle Beach. Hopefully, DJ Wilson, Kevonte Mitchell, or Joe Martarano can put it together for half a season. Or, it could even be one of this year’s draft picks or International players who steal the show – literally – like Fernando Kelli who had 58 SBs in 2017. When it comes to pitching, this year proved that opportunities will present themselves for pitchers to step up and become essential players. You never know who will get the chance.
By Todd Johnson
Like July, I made a lot of cards and very quickly in early August. Then, when I started getting ready to teach, the pace of cards slowed way down. I think it gets more challenging every month to pick just 10 cards because each month I keep adding more and more sources to make those cards.
Next year, I’m going to continue putting the cards in monthly albums on Facebook. It worked out better than I thought it could. It didn’t start out like that but once July got here, a lot of the loading issues were resolved by the monthly selections.
The top cards for this month don’t really have a theme. As I started to narrow them down, I began to also think where they would fit among the top 10 cards of the year. I think we may see two or three of them at the end of September when I do the cards of the year post.
10 to 8
Much of a good baseball card comes down to to action, light, and color. At Number 10, Dylan Heuer’s capture of Dillon Maples is accentuated by the sunlight that when combined with shadows really brings out the action. At number 9, Rikk Carlson encapsulates all the athleticism of DJ Wilson in one shot. Yasiel Balaguert is captured by the Tennessee Smokies with the red stripes on the jersey and on his compression stocking making the picture and the card.
7 to 5
There’s just something about the blue of the Tennessee Smokies uni that gets my attention. I might be crazy, but I just love that shade. Steve Perakslis’ jersey and hat show it off in the small shadows. I normally don’t have large pictures turned sideways for cards. I couldn’t resist with Emerald Media’s shot of Rafael Narea and a shot of Duane Underwood by the Smokies.
For Duane Underwood’s second card by MLB Pipeline, you might think it’s the blue that make it but I think it’s the red in the background that really sets up the blue. The Eugene Emeralds’ capture of Jesus Camargo’s face really makes his picture. At number three, Rikk Carlson is back and gets to number two (which seems to be a theme the past few months) on Ademan’s second night at South Bend.
#1. Minor-league baseball (@MiLB) captured the number one spot this month with their publication of a picture of DJ Wilson laying out in a road game. Right now, that picture is in the top two or three for the year.
I will be back in late September with a monthly post. There are still a lot of baseball pics to come in this weekend and in the playoffs. In October, I will have the top 10 cards of the year on in it. I will be back with “The Weekly” tomorrow where hopefully three teams will have clinched playoff spots and a fourth affiliate will still be alive for one.
By Todd Johnson
One of the things the Cubs management has shown a proclivity to do is to promote their top prospects in the waning weeks of the season to participate in the MiLB playoffs. This year, Myrtle Beach clinched a spot back in June by winning the first half. Eugene is just one game behind Boise for another spot while Tennessee is 3 1/2 back. Iowa is nowhere near a spot and South Bend is 10 games back despite having the best record of any Cubs affiliate this year.
No one is going to move up from Myrtle Beach to help Tennessee win. There are few players in the Arizona Rookie League who could wind up in Eugene to give the Emeralds a little push. But the biggest transition of talent is likely to come from South Bend to Myrtle Beach. The Pelicans were brilliant in the first half. Promotions, trades, and injuries remade the roster as they have limped to the worst record in the Carolina League in the second half.
Myrtle Beach is in need of some offense from the outfield, a starting pitcher, and some bullpen help. Here are a few players who could matriculate their way to Myrtle Beach to help the Pelicans win their third straight Mills Cup Championship.
DJ Wilson – The Cubs’ Minor League Player of the Month for July is the most likely prospect to head east. A natural center fielder, Wilson could slide right into the Pelicans’ lineup and provide some much needed punch from the left side. After spending the better part of June on the DL, Wilson returned and has been drawing more walks than before. He would fit right in as a Pelican.
Kevonte Mitchell – Another outfielder, Mitchell would provide some serious right handed power. In the second half, Mitchell is putting together a nice stretch of baseball showing patience and power at the same time. Just this month, he’s hitting .303 with a .425 OBP.
Bryan Hudson – The tall lefty starting pitcher has put together a good second half. In August, he has made two starts with a 0.90 ERA and has allowed only 2 ERs in his last 4 starts. For the year, he has a 3.00 ground ball to air out rate.
Jose Paulino – While he currently is a starter, Myrtle Beach needs bullpen help and that is what Paulino could provide. After struggling as a starter in April, Paulino worked his way back to the rotation over the course of May and June. In July, he had 2.20 ERA in 4 starts.
Wyatt Short – As the lefty closer at Eugene in 2016, he did not allow a run all season. This year has been a bit of a struggle at times. He has looked much better as of late with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of the year.
Mark Malave – The former catcher looks to be adjusting fine in his third year since switching to pitching. He’s struck out 20 in 20 IP since being promoted to South Bend to go along with a 2.70 ERA.
While it might be nice for the Pelicans to get all six players, odds are it will only be a couple of players arriving. I think Wilson will be get the call for sure. As for who the pitcher could be, I will be just as surprised as you.
The topic for every six pack changes throughout the week. When I woke up this morning I didn’t think that I was going to do a six pack. Since it’s the 11th August, I thought I’d take a look at ten-day splits to see how prospects are doing in preparation for our monthly All-Star team. As a result, the topic for today’s six pack is who’s hot and who’s not.
1. Dillon Maples – In 11.2 innings at Iowa, it looks as though he started to figure things out at this level, too. His K/9 rate is astronomical (15.43) and he’s only walked one batter. I am starting to get the inkling that he might make it to Chicago before the end of the month. Adding a guy in the bullpen who throws 98 to 100 with a wipeout slider is not going to hurt anything.
2. Mark Zagunis – In addition to hitting over .300 the past 6 weeks, he is still a walking machine. I feel pretty good about his chances of being in Chicago in September. But beyond that, he’s not going to be anything other than a fourth/fifth outfielder with who is in front of him. I really hope he gets an extended shot sometime in the next year whether it’s with the Cubs or another team.
3. The South Bend Outfield – Kevonte Mitchell, DJ Wilson, Luis Ayala, and Chris Pieters – Every single one of them is hitting above .321 this month and they are killing it in all phases of the game. Last night, Mitchell hit a grand slam while DJ Wilson tracked ball after ball down in centerfield. The other night, Kevonte threw out a guy at the plate. It has been nice to see them perform so well and it’s almost as if they are trying to one up each other.
4. Four Hitters in Rookie League – First, Luis Vasquez has peaked my interest since the Cubs signed him this summer. The fact that he is hitting .300+ as a 17-year-old tall and rangy shortstop helps as well. The same is true of Delvin Zinn’s athleticism and he seems to be back on track this month hitting over .300. International free-agent Jonathan Sierra seems to have found a groove (still no power) while Jose Gutierrez seems to have done the same hitting over .450 this month. I could also add in pitchers Rollie Lacy, Brendan King, Jeffrey Passantino, and reliever Mitch Stophel for another four.
5. Zack Short – The 23-year-old shortstop has transversed three levels in the past year since he was signed by the Cubs. He seems to be getting better at every level. In the past ten games, he has been on a tear hitting over .400 with 3 home runs. Combined, between Myrtle Beach.and South Bend, the leadoff hitter has 12 dingers this year with an OBP of .391 and this morning was named as having the best strike zone control in the Midwest League by Baseball America.
6. Who is not hot? The Eugene Defense
Once Aramis Ademan was promoted to South Bend, this team has been in a tailspin defensively. It’s a struggle for pitchers Alex Lange, Jose Albertos, and Brendon Little to get through an inning. In the past week, routine grounders have been misplayed, balls to first have been airmailed, and assignments and coverages have been blown. Instead of a pitcher getting out of an inning, those mistakes lead to two or three runs being scored, sometimes more.
Honorable Mentions – Yasiel Balaguert, Taylor Davis, James Norwood, Craig Brooks, Tyler Alamo, Bryan Hudson, Tyler Peyton, Brian Glowicki, Chris Singleton, Marcus Mastrobuoni, Cam Balego, Fernando Kelli, Emilio Ferrebus, and Erich Uelmen.
By Todd Johnson
The Cubs got a big win yesterday to stop a three game skid. There are still 53 games left to play and most of them are against teams with losing records. After next Sunday, the Cubs do not play a team with a winning record for the rest of the month. I feel pretty good about that.
The Eugene Trio: It’s been a beautiful week for the starting pitching of Eugene. When their All-Star break ended and play resumed on Thursday night, Jose Albertos pitched five innings of one hit ball. On Friday night, first-round draft pick Alex Lange made his professional debut with two innings of hitless ball. And on Saturday night, the Cubs other first round pick, Brendon Little, made his second start (but not a good one) as a Cubs prospect. That’s a promising peak into the future, provided they all stay healthy.
Cubs MiLB Awards: I expected that the Cubs would announce their awards on Saturday for minor league hitter and pitcher of the month for July but not a peep.
MiLB Farm System Rankings: Both Baseball America and MLB.com released their midseason farm system rankings this week. Not surprisingly, Baseball America ranked the Cubs 28th out of 30 teams. Considering who they traded this summer, no big news there. MLB.com only ranked the top 10, but they put the White Sox as number one.
John Sickels : He takes a while to release his midseason rankings. By the time he’s done, the season is usually over. After seeing MLB.com’s rankings last week , I was interested to see John’s take on the Cubs’ system and just who he thinks the top Cubs prospects are. It should be out today or tomorrow. I might even do a post about it, depending on how he ranks them.
Around the Minors: September 4 is coming quick. That is when the MILB season ends. Right now, only Myrtle Beach has punched a ticket to the postseason. Iowa and South Bend are pretty much out of the running along with the two Dominican summer league teams.Tennessee, on the other hand, is only three games back of Montgomery for a wildcard berth. Eugene has a slim one game lead as the second half division leader. In Mesa, despite being with the second worst team in the league the first half, is only one game back in the second.
Iowa – 4-2: Rob Zastryzny made it back from rehab and made it back from rehab and made his way to Chicago very quickly. Victor Caratini returned and promptly hit home runs both Friday and Saturday nights.
Tennessee – 5-2: Craig Brooks was named the Southern League’s Reliever of the Month after not giving up an earned run throughout July. Trevor Clifton missed a start this week but will be ready to go today. Hopefully, he can just relax and let his pitches do the work. Duane Underwood has now made two excellent starts in a row including a seven inning affair on Friday night where he struck out seven.
Myrtle Beach – 3-5: This team is having some issues as they have the worst record in the Carolina League in the second half after having the best the first. It is not the fault of Zack Short who seems to be making an excellent adjustment to high A ball. Over his last 10 games, the young shortstop is hitting .351 with a .405 OBP from the leadoff spot. In addition, pitcher Michael Rucker continues to do well. This week, he scattered 11 hits but only allowed one run in his start.
South Bend – 3-4: Erling Moreno returned to action on Friday night and pitched three innings while giving up just a run. Bryan Hudson also had an excellent start this week where he did not allow run in five innings. As well, Tyler Peyton had his best start as he gave up just one run in five innings. At the plate, Andruw Monasterio and Aramis Ademan make a formidable duo at the top of the lineup. I see this team maturing in small bits the past month. That bodes well for next year.
Eugene – 3-1: Several new players arrived this week including outfielder Chris Singleton and infielder Ramsey Romano. Singleton is off to a pretty good start and Romano struggled in his first two games after hitting almost 400 at Mesa. Pitcher Cory Abbott was also added to the team but has not thrown yet. Every time Ricky Tyler Thomas pitches, I come away extremely impressed with his performance, even if it is as a reliever.
Mesa – 2-4: It looks like their starting pitching might be starting to stabilize. Faustino Carrera had his best start of the year this week and Brailyn Marquez has looked amazing at times and terrible at others. Either way, he is striking out a lot of hitters (32 in 25.1 IP). Stephen Ridings had his best outing of year on Friday night and it looks like Brendan King might be a sleeper based on his short outings (1.59 ERA).
DSL 1 – 2-3: After a good week last week, the pitching hit the skids this week. Fernando Kelli has stolen almost 50 SBs. I am starting to get questions about the young switch hitting 18-year-old outfielder.
DSL 2 – 3-3: I still like some of the pitchers they have left. Danis Correa was promoted to Mesa and he might be followed by Emilio Ferrebus and Jesus Tejada. At the very least, expect Ferrebus and Tejada to be at instructs.
Coming up at Cubs Central.
1. Draft Player Update – In two separate posts, I will be giving an update on how this year’s draft class is performing as Cubs.
2. The other post I might write this week could be on some players I think who are ascending the past two months and might break out at the beginning of next year, if they have not already this year. Then again, I may wait until September to do this post.
3. I will continue to do updates on several of the Cubs top pitching prospects. That seems to be my focus of late.
4. I will also be interviewing pitcher Duncan Robinson in the early part of this week. Look for information from that discussion to be on all three platforms.
Card of the Week
Don’t ask me how, but I made 150 last month. This week, I already made over 30. Good thing school starts in a week: 2017 Cards: August .
By Todd Johnson
It was a bit stunning to look at how John Manuel and Baseball America (BA) viewed a reorganized collection of talent in the Cubs system. With Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Albert Almora, and Ian Happ no longer prospects, the BA staff went to town reshuffling their midseason prospect list (subscription required to read the profiles). In are a few young prospects in Jose Albertos, Isaac Paredes and Aramis Ademan. Also falling out of the top 10 from the January list are Trevor Clifton, Mark Zagunis, and DJ Wilson.
Here is their list (Links are to Cubs Central Profiles).
- Victor Caratini, C
- Thomas Hatch, RHP
- Jose Albertos, RHP
- Adbert Alzolay, RHP
- Isaac Paredes, SS
- Brendon Little, LHP
- Alex Lange, RHP
- Aramis Ademan, SS
- Jeimer Candelario, 3B
- Oscar de la Cruz, RHP
I guess it shouldn’t be all that surprising. Last week, I talked about the shift in the organization from hitting to pitching. However, I didn’t think that Lange and Little would be top 10 considerations without having thrown a pitch. There’s a lot to like about each of them, but pitching in the minors will take some adjusting for both of them.
While I agree with the overall restructuring of this list, I am not sure I would have put Caratini at #1 or Hatch at #2. While all lists are subjective in nature, there are data and reports which sway decisions and evaluations. I, for one, think Albertos should be number one based on his fastball command and poise at just 18. Others, like MLB.com, went with the old tried and true Jeimer Candelario.
I think that Caratini was selected by default based on his hitting performance this year, which has been spectacular (.342 avg, .919 OPS). On the other hand, everyone knows Caratini’s defense is his weakness and that there are other prospects in the Cubs’ system with far superior arms and defensive skills (Miguel Amaya and P.J. Higgins).
I was surprised to see Trevor Clifton drop all the way off the list. Clifton was outstanding in the early part of the year (1.84 ERA in May) at Tennessee but has struggled in June and July. As for Wilson, he missed most of the first half with a lower body injury after getting off to a poor start. As for Zagunis, he got a sneak peak in Chicago, but I don’t know how valued he is. He hasn’t hit for average as he has in the past, but he still gets his walks and has hit 11 HRs in 74 games, which is pretty decent.
Come the offseason, there will be new lists and a new number one as Caratini does not look to be leaving the Cubs 25 man roster anytime soon. So, we will get to debate again. And it will be fun as that is what a prospect list is supposed to do.
By Todd Johnson
The first half of the week was rather dull in the Cubs universe due to the MLB All-Star Game. Then, things exploded on Thursday with the Jose Quintana trade. The trade was soon followed with promotions from Eugene to South Bend to Myrtle Beach. I changed my Top 21 List and wondered who was left that the Cubs could trade for other needs for this year and beyond. I christened a new number one prospect in Jose Albertos (for now). Meanwhile, Dillon Maples and Jen-Ho Tseng made their way onto MLB.com’s Top 30 Prospect list in place of Eloy and Dylan Cease.
Then, on Friday night, Sonny Gray was reported to be scratched for his start, and then he went out and pitched a great game against the Indians raising his stock and the likely asking price. There are just 15 days left of the trade deadline left and I am pretty sure the Cubs are going to go out and get a few more players, but I don’t know if they will be big names.
On Saturday morning, Cubs V-P Jason McLeod was on 670 the Score’s “Hit and Run” for about 20 minutes. It was interesting listening to him talk about rebuilding the farm system after the trade. He said he was having a conversation with someone and said that the Cubs needed to go out next year and “sign some position players.” McLeod used the word “ludicrous” to describe how he thought about his own statement after years of dominating that market.
McLeod said that he and his staff are pretty excited about some young Latin players in the lower parts of the system. He also talked at length about the pitching the Cubs have in the minors. While he didn’t mention a lot of names, McLeod is very encouraged by their performances. On Thursday, I wrote about these same things.
As a result of the trade, there was a lot of movement in the minors.
To Myrtle Beach – Vimael Machin, Roberto Caro
To South Bend – Joe Martarano
Draft Pick Debuts This Week
Eugene – P Ricky Tyler Thomas, P Casey Ryan, P Jake Steffens, P Brian Glowicki, OF Brandon Hughes, and 2B Jared Young
Mesa – 3B Ramsey Romano, OF Chris Singleton, OF Chris Carrier, P Rollie Lacy, P Mitch Stophel, P Brendan King, P Ben Hecht, P Braxton Light, and P Jeffrey Passantino
Still Not Rostered – Pitchers Brendon Little, Alex Lange, Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, Erich Uelmen, Jeremiah Estrada, Peyton Remy, Sean Barry, Brady Miller, and OF Nelson Velazquez along with SS Luis Vazquez.
Coming Up on Cubs Central
My brain began to shift towards teaching this week. I usually start planning big idea stuff for the year shortly after July 4. As a result, my mind has been a little preoccupied. For a while, I did not have posts in the que for this next week. Thankfully, Jose Albertos made another start and I will be back with an article about that outing, hopefully tomorrow. On Monday, in the late afternoon, I will be doing a phone interview with Myrtle Beach pitcher Dakota Mekkes. I have some very exciting questions to ask him about his daily routine and the differences in levels.
I have also been busy making a lot of cards. It is going to be tough in a couple of weeks to just pick ten, and then one as the card of the month. You can find them on the Facebook page here.
Around the Minors This Week
I started assembling and culling statistics this week in preparation for the July All-Star team. It looks like there are going to be a lot of new faces this month. There are still 15 days left, but there are some interesting trends happening with Eddy Martinez, Luis Ayala, Zack Short, Vimael Machin, Isaac Paredes, and Yasiel Balaguert at the plate. On the mound, it is still a free-for-all as consistency from start to start seems to be an issue. Right now, Jose Paulino and Preston Morrison have been outstanding.
Iowa: 1-0; 42-48 – It was their All-Star Break this week and was soon followed by rain and more rain. For the second half, keep an eye on Matt Carasiti. The Cubs picked up the reliever in exchange for Zac Rosscup. He got the save in the AAA All-Star Game on Wednesday night.
Tennessee: 5-2; 14-9 – All of a sudden, the Smokies are in the lead for a playoff spot even though they aren’t in first. Since Chattanooga, who won the first half, is again in the lead, the Smokies have a 1.5 game lead for the second spot by virtue of having the second best record for the year.
Myrtle Beach: 2-3; 8-13 – They have gone from first to worst this half. Losing Alzolay to Tennessee will hurt, but so will losing Bryant Flete, Matt Rose, and Eloy. Still, they already have a spot wrapped up in the playoffs after winning the first half. Zack Short has responded well at this level, especially after being moved to the leadoff spot.
South Bend: 3-2; 10-12 – They can go only as far as the pitching will take them. Their hitting has been, for lack of a better phrase, “hit or miss” this half. They can score ten runs just as easily as two. They are extremely young and have a lot of potential on the roster. It is good to see Jose Paulino returning to starting and doing well.
Eugene: 4-2; 17-13 – They were on the road this week and getting some timely hits along with some help from what has turned into a college bullpen. Their first half ends next Sunday, the 23rd. Currently, they are in first place one game ahead of Hillsboro and Boise.
Mesa: 0-5, 5-12 – The bullpen on this team has been outstanding. The starting pitching has not which explains the rough week. Rob Zastryzny and Jake Stinnett made appearances last night as part of their rehab.
The DSL had their All-Star Game on Saturday. Three Cubs represented the organization. Pitchers Yovanny Cruz and Didier Vargas along with OF Fernando Kelli were in uniform yesterday for the National League.
DSL 1: 4-1; 19-17 – They are now getting some starting pitching to go with their heavy hitting lineup and are now just 4 games back in their division.
DSL 2: 3-2; 19-17 – Alonso Gaitan and Orian Nunez might be the best 1-2 punch in the system but they are not getting a lot of help hitting. This is still a team built with excellent starting pitching. Several of the starters should be in fall instructs and a couple might make it to Mesa before the end of August. Remember the names – Jesus Tejada, Didier Vargas, and Emilio Ferrebus.
Players of the Week
Card of the Week