By Todd Johnson
Two Cubs pitchers returned to action in Mesa last night. Alec Mills from Iowa went two innings with 2 Ks and Oscar de la Cruz from Myrtle Beach made his first appearance since May 25. Oscar threw 2 IP with 1 K. Those were good to read about! Based on Oscar’s rehab last year, I would expect them to work their way through the system before getting back to their respective affiliates.
Jake Stinnett seems to be flourishing as a reliever thanks in part to coach Ron Villone’s advice in Mesa. Stinnett has a 1.35 ERA in relief in his short time for the Smokies. Things are looking up for the 2014 second round pick.
The MiLB season is winding down with just two weeks to go for most of the affiliates. The DSL teams end next Saturday, the 26th. I started back to teaching this past week. However, it is always an adjustment transitioning from summer to school. I hope to write about three posts a week once I get settled at school a bit more.
There was a lot of good pitching this week. It was hard to pick a pitcher of the day every day this week. Duncan Robinson threw 5 scoreless and didn’t get pitcher of the day on the 17th. Jesus Tejada in the DSL struck out 10 on Friday while Erling Moreno Kd 8 in his lone start this week.
While I did not write much that was published the past week, I did some pre-writing activities. I began researching splits for the August All-Star Team and 2nd Half All-Star Team. I also narrowed down players for the second half breakout prospect awards.
For the breakout hitter, I am completely undecided. I have some thinking to do as no one in the states really stood out that hasn’t been on someone’s radar. As for starting pitching, Duncan Robinson and Michael Rucker are the finalists just for the second half. Dillon Maples, David Garner, and Craig Brooks are the relievers who earned serious props in the second half. Here are the first half breakout players.
I also began assembling some “Names to Know” for 2018. It is a collection of names from Mesa and Eugene with a few other players mixed in. Basically, these are the players who I can’t wait to see play. There are several names you already know. I will break that down into pitching and hitting storylines.
I don’t know when any of the posts listed above will be out, but I am leaning towards the early and middle parts of September. They would fit snugly alongside the year end affiliate reviews.
Tennessee – 2-4: Some hitters seem to have had a resurgence down in Tennessee after some poor second halfs. Jason Vosler, Charcer Burks, and David Bote seem to be turning it on to keep up with Yasiel Balaguert, who has been hot all second half.
Myrtle Beach – 7-1: They are getting hot just in time to defend the Mills Cup. Tyler Alamo is quietly putting together a great season.
South Bend – 5-2: If you take away June and the first two weeks of July, this would have been a playoff team. There’s a lot of talent here even if the record doesn’t show it.
Eugene – 2-5: Poor defense and a dormant offense are derailing their playoff chances. Miguel Amaya, on the other hand, seems to be finding his bat.
Mesa – 4-3: They are still very young and very raw. Catcher Marcus Mastrobuoni has been the team’s best hitter.
DSL 1 – 3-2: DSL 2 – 3-2
I will have a post out Tuesday summing up some possible prospects to keep an eye on at Fall Instructs from DSL 1 and DSL 2.
Duncan Robinson Part 1
By Todd Johnson
At some point over the next two weeks, the Cubs will select up to eight players to participate in the prestigious Arizona Fall League. The league is a collection of elite talent. Held in October and November, the Cubs use this opportunity to evaluate how some players do against top-flight competition. The Cubs also use the league after to determine if they want to add certain players to the 40 man roster to avoid losing them in the Rule V Draft. And they also get some top prospects, who have been injured, some extra games in.
This year is quite the conundrum. I think the Cubs could add up to 8 prospects to the 40 man roster this winter. Here is List of Eligible Players for the rule five draft per The Cub Reporter:
Tyler Alamo, Adbert Alzolay, Luis Ayala, Yasiel Balaguert, Corey Black, David Bote, Cael Brockmeyer, Charcer Burks, Stephen Bruno, Roberto Caro, Trevor Clifton, Kevin Cornelius, Oscar de la Cruz, Enrique de los Rios, Andin Diaz, Andrew Ely, Luiz Escanio, Bryant Flete, Robert Garcia, David Garner, Yapson Gomez, Zach Hedges, Luis Hernandez, Jesse Hodges, Eloy Jiménez, John Michael Knighton, Erick Leal, Mark Malave, Dillon Maples, Brad Markey, Joe Martarano, Ryan McNeil, Jordan Minch, Erling Moreno, James Norwood, Juan Carlos Paniagua, Adonis Paula, Jose Paulino, Tyler Pearson, Henry Pedra, Stephen Perakslis, Jhonny Pereda, Chris Pieters, Bijan Rademacher, Moises Ramirez, Will Remillard, Juan Rengifo, David Rollins, Manuel Rondon, Carson Sands, Pedro Silverio, Jake Stinnett, Tommy Thorpe, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jason Vosler, Ryan Williams, Chesny Young, Jose Zapata.
I think two pitchers they want to get a closer look at are Dillon Maples and Adbert Alzolay. Although Alzolay is a starter, he could work in relief in Mesa. I also think 3B Jason Vosler and OF Charcer Burks are definitely going to Arizona. You could even throw in left-handed reliever Jordan Minch as that is a scarce position in the majors. The Cubs could also use a closer look at C Ian Rice and to get him more time behind the plate with elite pitchers. Closer Pedro Araujo Is another ascending reliever who the Cubs might want to take a look at. Currently he is dominating as the closer at Myrtle Beach. Outfielder Eddy Martinez could get a shot at Arizona if he could improve a little bit this summer. Currently, he is hitting .325 over his last 10 games.
The big-name prospect that they could send this year is not Eloy. Instead it is pitcher Oscar de la Cruz who missed most of June with a strained shoulder muscle. I would like to see how his mid 90s heat does against more advanced hitters.
As a result, I think the Cubs will definitely select a minimum of five players to go on the 40 man roster this winter. I do think they could really add up to eight.
Definitely 40 man material
Adbert Alzolay, Charcer Burks, Trevor Clifton, Oscar de la Cruz, Eloy Jimenez
I think these five are all on a major-league track. Adbert’s has been a surprise this year along with Burks. The other three have been some of the Cubs top prospects for the past three years. I would be stunned if Clifton, Jimenez, and de la Cruz are not on the 40 man.
Most Likely Added
I really like Dillon Maples. His curveball is out of this world and he’s really taking big steps toward becoming a major-league reliever this year. I think it all boils down to confidence for him and he will probably be in Iowa in August. As for Jason Vosler, I think the Cubs need to see what they have in the left-handed third baseman before they make a decision. He had a great April and May before slumping in June, even though he hit five home runs for the month.
Maybe – Maybe Not
Chesny Young has not had the greatest year. I don’t think the Cubs are going to protect him. If they don’t, I think somebody might snag him. Jen-Ho Tseng is a tricky one. He’s had a rebirth this year, but I don’t know if he will make it to Chicago if he does get put on the 40 man.
Bijan Rademacher is a guy you root for. He is still relatively young and can play all three outfield positions. He just doesn’t have much power but he can hit for a high average.
Jake Stinnett, Erick Leal, Ryan Williams, Zach Hedges, Carson Sands – These are all nice guys but injuries have done four out of five of them in for this year. Sands might be one to talk about a year from now. He is currently rehabbing in Mesa after elbow splints.
Joe Martarano – even though he missed a season playing football, he was just promoted to South Bend. I know a team is not going to take a chance and select him with the expectation of him playing on the major-league roster. A year from now, that might be a different discussion.
Jordan Minch – he’s left-handed, he’s a reliever, and if exposed, he might get selected. But that’s a big if.
Do they stay on?
Right now Pierce Johnson, Dwayne Underwood, and Jacob Hannemann are all on the 40 man roster. Johnson and Underwood have had underwhelming seasons in 2016, while Hanneman has had a resurgence in his best month as a prospect since his promotion to AAA Iowa. I think the Cubs give them one more year. Underwood, after all, is only 22 years old. On the other hand, Johnson and Hannemann are 26.
The decisions for the Arizona Fall League usually occur in the middle of July. Whomever the Cubs select to attend always gives a glimpse into who they value and who they need to evaluate some more.
By Todd Johnson
The second half of the minor-league season begins today. With Myrtle Beach already in the playoffs, Tennessee and South Bend will both be trying to get in after barely missing in the first half. Both of those teams will have to improve and infusion of talent could help. For the Iowa Cubs, they are going to need a lot to go right just to get back to .500. But then again, their main gig is to have players developed and ready to play in Chicago.
Iowa: 31-41 – Record is cumulative for the year (last place in Northern Division)
This team needs some starting pitching. They ranked 14th out of 16 teams in team ERA in the Pacific Coast League. Starter Zach Hedges joined Iowa a week ago, but they need one more arm in the rotation and maybe one or two in the pen. Dave Berg is turning out to be a pleasant surprise at this level. When it comes to hitting, who knew that Jake Hannemann would be profoundly better at AAA than at AA. He’s hitting .311 in 16 games. Expect to see Jen-Ho Tseng make it to Iowa after the All-Star Break. I don’t expect to see any promotions to Chicago except a bullpen arm like Zac Rosscup or Jack Leathersich.
Key Hitting Prospect: Victor Caratini – His bat has nothing left to accomplish in Iowa. It is all about his glove and arm the rest of the year.
Key Pitching Prospect: Jack Leathersich – After missing a year and a half, he looks to be in shape and ready to help out at the MLB level. In 6 June appearances, he has a 1.17 ERA and has struck out 13 in 7.1 IP while opponents are only hitting .154 against him.
Tennessee: 36-33 First Half – 5.5 GB
This team had a nice stretch in May and then fell apart the past two weeks. They will be fine. I wonder how long Burks and Vosler stay at this level? They have been outstanding hitters along with Andrew Ely. Ian Rice has been streaky as has David Bote. But the key to their season is the bullpen. If Ryan McNeil gets it figured out, look out because Torrez and Pugliese have given up nothing in front of him all year and David Garner was having a good June. Dillon Maples and his MLB ready curveball have been excellent so far. Also, I am hoping that Jake Stinnett makes it back to pitch this year. If he does not, look for some starter from Myrtle Beach to move up to Tennessee soon.
Eloy Jimenez is coming…it is not a question of if, but when. He is being pitched around quite a bit in the Carolina League. I don’t expect this promotion to take long, though. When he does come, his bat will really change the lineup for those in front of him, and those behind, especially Jason Vosler.
Key Pitching Prospect: Trevor Clifton – Just 22, Clifton has gone a level a year. He had a good April and May and slumped a little in June. He should be back to normal after the break. He has been a stud in July and August the past two summers.
Key Hitting Prospect: Eloy – He better be.
Myrtle Beach: 43-27 First Half; Southern Division Champions
They won 20 out of 24 to close out the first half. All parts of the team clicked to make it happen – starting pitching, hitting, defense, and the bullpen. In the second half, Manager Buddy Bailey will surely have some roles to figure out as some players head to Tennessee and others come in from South Bend and the draft. Adbert Alzolay made a case to be promoted as he went deep into games most every night. It should be interesting to see who is on this roster come the first of July. Even then, this team will have plenty of starting pitching and a shut down bullpen to possibly win the second half title as well.
Key Hitting Prospect – Trent Giambrone – He is coming on strong. After barely hitting .220 in the first half, he is hitting almost .300 in June
Key Pitching Prospect – Thomas Hatch – He has yet to give up a run this month and looks to have his command and control down perfectly.
South Bend: 39-30 First Half – 1.5 GB of a Wild Card Spot
They were blowing the doors of teams in May and then they hit a wall. The 18-20 year-old hitters just looked tired at the end of late May and they began slumping at the worst possible time. Wladimir Galindo broke his leg and some key bullpen arms were promoted, not to mention Dylan Cease’s ankle injury. Still, there’s a lot of hope for the second half. They’re a very young team but they can hit. Zack Short seems an old man at 21. Duncan Robinson was a nice first half surprise along with Short, Vimael Machin, and Albert Mineo. I think several college picks could arrive to help the bullpen and to offset any losses for position players – remember the name Brandon Hughes, an outfielder from Michigan State.
Key Hitting Prospect: Isaac Paredes – He is already hitting over .300 for June. It took a while, but I think he is beginning to live up to the faith the Cubs brass had in him skipping Eugene.
Key Pitching Prospect: Dylan Cease – He really needs innings and developing efficiency is the key to him strengthening that arm. Right now, he has 38.1 IP. He has about 13-14 starts left. Hopefully, he can get over 100 IP in this year. That would be great!
Overall, I don’t see a lot of promotions taking place this month. Maybe one starting pitcher/reliever per team and maybe one position player as well. I think most of the movement is going to come with draft picks. As a result, the lower levels will have the most impact, specifically South Bend and Eugene.
This was the fastest minor league first half I can remember. It just flew by. For Cubs prospects, there were a lot of great performances in that time span. Many players were able to sustain a level of excellence, while others ebbed and flowed.
If you’ve been following this website, I don’t think there any surprises on the list. However I think there are some names who you would not have foreseen at the beginning of the year. Names like Duncan Robinson, Andrew Ely, Michael Rucker, Jason Vosler, and Dillon Maples, to name a few.
Here is this year’s Cubs first half minor league all-star team in video form.
Here are some names for you to ponder when it comes to the second half All-Star team:
Miguel Amaya, Aramis Ademan, Thomas Hatch, Gustavo Polanco, Jose Albertos, and many more. It would not surprise me to see half the names change in this list.
I will be back tomorrow with a post about some possible breakout players to watch for in the second half. They are mostly players from Mesa and Eugene with a few draft picks thrown in for good measure.
By Todd Johnson
Usually most breakouts occur in the lower levels of the minor leagues. A prospect comes out and begins to let his talent shine for all to see. In the first half of 2017, this is mostly the case. This year, there are several prospects who are putting together some eye-popping performances, somewhat out of the blue. And many of them are showing that they could be assets at the MLB level.
Charcer Burks – He has just been outstanding as the lead off hitter for Tennessee. He is hitting .314 with a .412 OBP. I don’t think he is in Tennessee much after the All-Star break. If he can add some more power, I wonder if he’s closer to Chicago then anyone thinks, a lot closer. Add in a gold glove defense and he is becoming someone to think about at the next level.
Zack Short – He reminds me a lot of Mark Zagunis. He leads the Midwest league in walks (49) and put up an on-base percentage of over 400. Once he went into the leadoff spot, South Bend took off.
Wladimir Galindo – I have always been intrigued by Wladimir’s power potential. This year, he showed he can hit for average. He hit .290 with 4 HRs and 19 RBI before a broken leg ended his season. He will be back next year.
Jason Vosler – Hitting 12 home runs will get anyone noticed. Add in a .400 OBP at AA and you have Jason Vossler in 2017. He already tripled his HR output from last year and needs 2 RBI to equal last year’s as well. He has a nice smooth, quick stroke to the ball and hits lefties (.305) better than righties (.257). That’s not a skill you see everyday (except Rizzo).
Daniel Spingola – He adjusted his swing a little bit to create a little more lift and that has made all the difference this year. Every month he has hit between .280 and .300. He’s been the model of consistency.
Bryant Flete – As the lead off hitter for the Pelicans, he has made the team go. He is proven this year that he is more than just an organizational defensive player. He can hit and his average is testament to his hard work. He is stronger than people give him credit as he has 6 HRs to date.
Dillon Maples – It looks like he finally has it altogether after 5 years. He carved up the Carolina League this spring as a setup man and then a closer. Now off he his Tennessee doing the same. I watched his curveball destroy several hitters’ will to live or even swing a bat. Maples confounded the Twins’ top prospect, Nick Gordon, so much that it looked Gordon screwed himself into the ground swinging. Combined, he’s struck out 50 batters in 34 IP. He’s basically become a fastball/curve reliever. His FB comes in at 96-98 and his curve is in the mid to upper 80s at over 2000 RPM per Scott Kornberg.
Duncan Robinson – He has a monster curveball and an upper 80s/lower 90s fastball that runs in on the hands of right-handed hitters. He dominated the Midwest League, first in relief, then as a starter. I don’t know how long he’s going to be at South Bend, but I would say not much longer.
Michael Rucker – I really like what he can do on the mound. He attacks hitters with a low to mid 90s fastball all in the zone. He rarely walks anyone. His ability to throw strikes constantly inside has been the key. I wonder how long he is going to start this year versus being a reliever? He consistently hits 95/96 in relief and that could change the conversation about his usefulness.
Dakota Mekkes – He has been ungodly for South Bend and his first two outings at Myrtle Beach followed suit. He still needs to cut down on some walks, but his deceptive delivery allows him to strike out batters at an alarming rate.
Justin Steele – It looks like he is finally putting it together. He’s made 13 starts and has a 2.32 ERA. For the last two months, his monthly ERAs are 1.63 and 1.62. Outstanding! He has MLB type stuff and it looks like his harnessing both the physical and mental aspects of the game. However, his WHIP is a little high (1.39) but that tells me he is able to pitch out of trouble now.
Breakout Player of the First Half
Adbert Alzolay – He has been fantastic this year at Myrtle Beach. His fastball has been hitting 96 to 97 regularly and he is able to keep that up throughout the game – 6 to 7 innings deep. He’s struck out 67 in 70 IP with an ERA of 2.83. The three keywords to his success are: tempo, tempo, and tempo. There are other breakout pitchers who have put up better ERAs than Adbert, but they lack the power fastball that Adbert has been able to control and use efficiently to pitch 7 innings like a major league starter needs to do.
Most of these players will be on Monday’s All-Star Team for the First Half. Their performances have been year long and not just a flash in the pan. Though some have worked their way onto a prospect list, others above have not and they may never do so. However, they still have something to offer and their play is speaking volumes.
On Tuesday, I will be back to talk about some prospects who I think could break out in the second half. Most of them are going to be draft picks and players in Eugene and Mesa.
By Todd Johnson
April was a pretty rough month as temperatures kept some players down. Now that it has warmed up, so have the performances. In fact, they were many more players competing for a spot this month, whereas in April, each position was pretty clear-cut.
Starting pitchers and outfielders made the most improvement over the last five weeks. In fact, the starting pitching was so impressive I went with eight starters rather than the normal six. They all posted ERAs under 3, which made the decision pretty easy.
I did not put Eloy on the team as he only played in 13 games, but what a 13 game stat line. He hit .324 with 3 HRs, 10 RBI, and a .468 OBP. I cannot wait to see how he does in June.
Let’s get right to this month’s list…
Iowa – 4 (all hitters)
Tennessee – 11 (4 position/7 pitchers)
Myrtle Beach – 4 (all pitchers)
South Bend – 4 (1 hitter/3 pitchers)
For next month…
Several players will be returning very soon from the DL. They include Trey Martin, Erling Moreno, Jordan Minch, Bailey Clark, and Dylan Cease. As well, some players are starting to put it together who could make a run for next month’s squad. They include Wladimir Galindo, Luis Ayala, Robert Garcia, Dave Berg, and pitcher Thomas Hatch.
Mesa, Eugene, and two DLS squads fire up their seasons this month. Most of them will be in contention for the honorable mention sections as Eugene and Mesa will only get about 12 games in, not enough to qualify.
The two DSL teams start Saturday, June 3rd, and could have some names on the list. Most position players signed in the draft begin play right away. Pitchers selected take some time to get back into shape.
By Todd Johnson
When I first saw Jason Vosler it was in 2015 at South Bend, all I could think of was Mark Grace. That was not a comp for his swing, rather it was the fact that Vosler originally did not wear batting gloves his first couple of years in the system. This year, he has them on and is having his best start as a Cubs prospect.
Fangraphs is one site that loves Vosler. Carson Cistulli stated:
Over the first month of his 2017 campaign, Vosler has continued producing his characteristically strong contact rates. He’s also recorded his typical marks at third base. As for the power, however, it has been something much better than “non-negligible.” After recording only three homers over 483 plate appearances last year while splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Vosler has already hit seven home runs in 2017. The result? The absolute highest isolated-power figure among qualified Double-A batters.
Great Feel for the Zone
Short, quick stroke
Power to all fields
Areas of Concern
Hitting for Average
Heading into 2017
For the better part of three seasons, Vosler had flashed the ability to hit for power at certain times. I was surprised in 2015 when he was promoted mid season from South Bend to Myrtle Beach. At the time, I did not think he had done anything to warrant a promotion. He proved me wrong by slugging .441 the rest of that summer.
In 2016, he returned to Myrtle Beach for half of summer and moved up at the same time as Jeimer Candelario did from Tennessee to Iowa. Vosler flashed powered from time to time but his batting average was still stuck between .240 and .250 most months. The 10 home runs he hit in 2015 dwindled to just three for the entire 2016 season.
In May, Vosler is hitting over .329 with a slugging percentage of .481. For the year he is hitting .305 with seven homeruns and 29 RBI.
Right now, I am cautiously optimistic about his season. While he did hit five home runs in April, he has only hit two so far in May, but his batting average increased by over 100 points this month. His on base percentage is now over .400. For three of the four previous seasons, it was usually in the mid-.300s.
Along with Daniel Spingola, Vosler has improved greatly at the plate. He will more than likely make the Cubs Central All-Star team and end up as a runner-up for Hitter of the Month to Victor Caratini or Chesny Young. That is nothing to sneeze at but I would like to see Vosler replicate those stats in June before I fully jump on his bandwagon. I don’t see any reason why he should not be able to do so. He is well known as a student of the game. I am really looking forward to his June.
I see some future for Vosler as a Cub. However, he does play a position where he is blocked by two people already. In order to move up, Vosler is going to have to make himself stand out even more. That could include becoming more versatile and a consistent force at the plate.