Prospect Profile: Caleb Kilian Could Be Ready in 2022

When the final details on the Kris Bryant trade came out, the initial response by many was a bit underwhelming. The Cubs we’re getting back outfielder Alexander Canario and pitcher Caleb Kilian. Kilian, at the time, was ranked as the number 30 prospect on MLB pipeline. Most Cubs fans were displeased just based solely on his ranking. Once I started digging and finding out more about Kilian, my own attitude did a 180. It all had to do with the performance that he’s had this year and how he’s transformed himself during the pandemic. We will get to all of that in due time but the Cubs may have found themselves a starting pitcher who could be in Chicago In a short amount of time.

Basic Info

Age – 24

Height – 6-foot-4

Weight – 180

Throws – Right

School – Texas Tech

2019 8th Round Pick by the Giants

At Texas Tech, Kilian slowly worked his way into the rotation. He started just once as a Freshman in 16 games. As a sophomore, that grew to 11 and he moved full-time there as a junior when he made 17 starts. For his career, he had a 3.61 ERA in 206.2 IP with 180 Ks and a batting average against of .227. That was good enough for the Giants to take him in the 8th round of the 2019 MLB Draft.

After being drafted, Kiliann was assigned to the Arizona Rookie League where he pitched a whopping one game and then was transferred to Salem-Keizer in the Northwest League. Combined, he threw 16 innings with a 0.00 ERA, he struck out 17 in seven games and had a batting average against of .135. It’s not uncommon for a college pitcher to come in and do well in short one or two inning stints in short season A ball. 

But during the pandemic, Killian worked on building up his 180 pound frame into something stronger that saw his fastball tick up into the mid to upper 90s.

Before this season, MLB Pipeline said the following:

Kilian added strength during his layoff and showed increased velocity in short stints at instructs, topping out at 98 mph after usually ranging from 90-95 with his four-seam fastball in college. After battling inconsistency with his breaking balls at Texas Tech, he has added some power to his curveball and scrapped his slider in favor of a shorter, harder cutter. He also exhibits feel for an average changeup. 

To begin 2021, Killian was assigned to Eugene in the new High A Northwest League. He did not stay there long. In 4 starts, he threw 21.2 innings with a 1.25 ERA and 32 Ks. In addition, he had a 0.46 WHIP. Near the end of May, he was promoted to AA Richmond.

Caleb Kilian struck out nine over four shutout innings Tuesday night, allowing only one hit vs Spokane while topping out at 97mph. pic.twitter.com/AClztPDqsj

— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) May 6, 2021

if you look at the stats that Kilian put up in Richmond, and how he’s quietly go on about his business, you can see why the Cubs wanted to include him in the Bryant deal. In 11 starts he has a 2.43 ERA in 63 innings. He struck out 64 batters and he lead the AA Northeast League in five pitching categories including walks per nine, walk percentage, strikeout to walk ratio, home runs per nine innings, and groundball-to-flyout ratio. Kilian was ranked second in three other categories including FIP, ERA, and WHIP. That’s a pretty impressive resume.

Getting traded in the middle of the season is never easy. For Kilian, it has been an adjustment. He’s got new catchers who need to learn his stuff. He’s got a new league filled with new hitters. He’s got a new organization that needs to develop an individualized pitching program. And, he’s got new scouting reports and new types of data and tech to deal with. That’s a lot to take on. As a Cub, Kilian has pitched a whopping 10.2 innings over 3 appearances. He’s given up 2 runs over 5, 4 over 5 (although all the runs were scored off two pitches to former Cub Michael Cruz), and he threw 2/3 of a scoreless inning before the game was delayed for 2+ hours.

In watching those three outings, I am getting some flashes of what he can do as a pitcher. I am not getting a full-fledged portrait of what all he can do just yet, especially when he is in a groove. That might take another start for Kilian and catcher Tim Susnara to get in sync.

However, let’s take a look at what is most definitely his out pitch, a classic 12-to-6 curve.

I am really liking Kilian’s curveball pic.twitter.com/v9nkMzvUra

— Todd ⚾️🐻🦌 (@CubsCentral08) August 8, 2021

With his track record, Kilian could be the most advanced pitcher the Cubs currently have in their system and the most likely to make an impact in the rotation in the next year and a half. Once he gets more comfortable, we should get a much better idea of how he pitches and whether that might play in Chicago very soon.